RISE – The Future of the Construction Industry
In 2012 The National Property Research Company was asked by Construction Skills Queensland (CSQ) and the Urban Development Institute of Australia (UDIA) to undertake one of the most in depth studies of the Queensland construction and property industries ever completed. The research and analysis by the NPR Co. would be used as a key part of a CSQ report called RISE. RISE was launched by CSQ on the 14th March 2013 at the Brisbane Convention Centre in front of a large crowd of industry leaders, media, government and not for profit groups. The report and presentations can be found on the CSQ website HERE.
The RISE report presents extensive information and insights about the nature of the construction industry across Queensland and the level of demand from the residential and commercial sectors over the next ten years. This information is then used to gain a better understanding of the skill and education requirements for the construction industry over the next 10 years.
The NPR Co. input to the CSQ report required demand projections for the next ten years for both the public and private sectors across the residential and commercial sub-sectors of the construction industry. The study did not have a Brisbane or even South East Queensland focus but required projections for 31 Local Government Areas (LGAs) across Queensland which would be grouped into the seven regions shown in the map below and listed under the map.
Rise Report Regions (Source: OESR & NPR Co.)
1. Far North Queensland – Cairns, Tablelands and Weipa LGAs
2. North Queensland – Townsville, Mount Isa, Cloncurry and Charters Towers LGAs
3. North Central Queensland – Mackay, Isaac and Whitsunday LGAs
4. Central Queensland – Rockhampton, Gladstone, Banana, Central Highlands, Barcaldine and Longreach LGAs
5. Wide Bay Burnett – Bundaberg, Gympie, Fraser Coast and North Burnett LGAs
6. Darling Downs South West – Toowoomba, Western Downs and Maranoa LGAs
7. South East Queensland – Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Logan, Ipswich, Moreton Bay, Redland and Lockyer Valley LGAs
The NPR Co. approach to this project involved both a quantitative analysis using the latest data, qualitative information based on local market knowledge and more detailed reports on specific sub-sectors. The quantitative component involved data analysis using the 2011 Census Data as well as a range of other ABS and OESR sources to examine trends in building approvals, housing affordability, household types, dwellings types, population, employment and income etc. to determine their effect on the property market and in turn the demand for dwellings.
The qualitative component provided an in-depth look at the strengths and weaknesses of each region as well as an assessment of the future opportunities and risks. The qualitative data for the regional summaries was obtained by travelling to all of the regions and many of the LGAs and speaking with local council, real estate agents, town planners, industry investment agencies as well as major infrastructure providers such as ports where possible. In addition an industry survey was also conducted with construction industry representatives in each region.
Other key components of the NPR Co. report included a detailed study of the medium density apartment market and the retail floor space provisions across the regions. The medium density apartment report involved an historical analysis of sales of medium density residential development. Sales for the past ten years across 16 major centres were grouped according to individual buildings with each building categorised by its height. Using the sales data, NPR Co. gained an understanding of the apartment market in each major centre including the length of selling periods, average number of sales per quarter, the number of 3 storey walk-up residential buildings compared to the number of 40 storeys plus residential buildings as well as other information.
An analysis of the retail floor space for shopping centres across the regions was also undertaken to gain an understanding of the different retail to population ratios that exist between regions, why they differ and what impacts this is likely to have on the economy during boom and bust periods.
As a result of this geographically broad study, the NPR Co. has gained insights into the significant, as well as the subtle differences between property markets throughout Queensland. These differences provide insight into some of the key property market issues such as:
• How has the downturn in tourism affected the various regions and their property markets?
• Why do some resource areas have bigger FIFO/DIDO issues than others?
• Which Councils are experiencing land supply and infrastructure issues?
• Which areas have the most stable economic outlook?
• Which areas are likely to lead the recovery in the property market?
• Which areas are experiencing the largest demographic changes over the next ten years?
• Which areas are experiencing the most significant housing affordability issues and why?
CSQ has utilised NPR Co.’s property market research and demand projections to identify demand for the various skills and occupations in the construction industry and also identified the expected location of the demand. This timely report will be crucial in planning for the education and training of construction industry employees and apprentices and ensuring the long term efficiency and viability of the residential and commercial construction industry.
The NPR Co. is very proud to have been part of this construction industry initiative. Please contact us if you would like to utilise our local knowledge of the Queensland property market for your project.
The National Property Research Co.
Ph (07) 3229 0111
Level 1, 307 Queen Street
Brisbane QLD 4000