2024 remained a year of confusion for many, us included when it came to many of the economic indicators. Robust employment conditions but with poor household savings, low consumer confidence and generally weak retail conditions. Inflation remained stickier than we thought with Australia’s monetary policy lagging most of the advanced economies, many of which have now had multiple rate cuts.
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The RBA’s hand must surely be hovering over the big red interest rate button as, like most of us it ponders just how there can be so much conflicting data that really doesn’t make a lot of sense. However it is all starting to line up in a more traditional sense and it really doesn’t look all that great. The Population Ponzi Scheme at this point really does have a lot to answer for and Australian’s are paying the price…both literally and figuratively.
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With 2024 well underway, let’s take a look at some of the high level economic issues that are going to shape all property uses and some of the challenges that are going to need the RBA, Local, State and Federal government to act co-operatively as they mostly did during the pandemic. The blame game between these institutions in 2023 was not healthy for the country and effectively eroded confidence at all levels.
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The release of the latest iteration of the draft SEQRP is always interesting from the comments it generates throughout the professional services and government circles. Be that affordability, migration, density versus urban expansion and even whether the document is market facing or otherwise.
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As we roll around to another expected interest rate increase and discussions inevitably turn to mortgage repayments and household spending, the nuances of demographics are often lost in the debate. As is the impact on the Australian dollar and businesses that employ our workforce.
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Perhaps it is time for APRA to reconsider its stance on lending policies around investment loans if supply is considered to be a major social and economic constraint in most parts of Australia. Even if this does occur, do we have the skilled labour to meet this demand assuming investors become more active?
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