There has been a lot written recently about the prominence of cycling with the capacity to transform how people move around a city or suburb. As a cyclist myself, I love the fact that society seems to have fallen in love with the humble push bike again. However, there is an issue around causation which would appear to be largely misleading. The argument goes something like this, “public transport numbers are down and cycling is up, therefore more people are cycling to work”, or “people are ditching their cars in favour of cycling”.

When I was lecturing at QUT we often used the example of ice cream sales being up and more houses getting broken into. Higher ice cream sales didn’t lead to more houses getting broken into, the increased temperature which drove ice cream consumption meant more people left windows open, which made it easier for burglars to break and enter. In similar fashion, more people riding bikes does not necessarily demonstrate causality around less public transport use or commuting to work.

The chart above displays the total number of bikes recorded within Ekibin Park during each week starting from the 1st of January 2020 through to the 29th April 2020. This graph is typical of almost all of the bike paths that are monitored by council and demonstrates an upward trend from the week starting March 4th to a high point in April that either plateau’s or starts to decline. Very few continue to demonstrate a consistent increase, most reach a saturation point. By March 22nd all Gyms were closed, people started working from home and by default did not catch public transport to the city, if that was in fact where they worked. The need for CityCat and ferry services continued to decline at a similar time as cycling numbers increased.

This is a picture the author took during peak hour times at West End before the Corona Virus became a pandemic and impacted Australia and its cities. If I was to show you a picture today of this same stretch of absolutely wonderful public infrastructure, it would likely be full of adults and children walking, walking their dogs, running, scootering, cycling, stretching and generally enjoying their neighbourhood. This demonstrates that when people have time, they will use what planners and council create and build for them. Will this free time remain? Probably not under normal conditions.

So, were people opting to go to work via cycling instead of catching public transport in fear of catching the Covid-19 virus? I suspect not. In fact, the author suspects that as freedom of travel increases, many bikes will be put to the side as cars become an easier choice, particularly during those cold winter mornings and the sun gets up later. Public transport by default will have to overcome a poor and largely unjustified image as being a potential contagion hub.

So this our assertion…and it may not be right also. However, the author would suggest that the use of these public facilities has more to do with the extra time people have at present. In lockdown and social isolation, most households find themselves with more time and less opportunities. Less opportunities being the ability to go to a gym, the possibility of sitting at a café and reading a paper whilst enjoying their own personal or a shared bubble, the reality that work may actually start at 8.30am and that you don’t have to leave home early to beat the traffic or secure a park. The decline in public transport use arguably has more to do with restrictions than a change in psychology or behaviour that was a voluntary cognitive response to alternative transport methodologies.

What will happen when restrictions are eased? Will the love of cycling remain at the same levels in 12 months’ time, assuming that society has returned to normal? The property economist in me says that the data is already softening for cycling use and that residents will use the existing infrastructure when they have time. The need for separating bikes and cars should be a very high priority for “nudge” behavioural shifts amongst other desirable changes that could have greater influence over the longer term. The dreamer in me says that three to six months of personal change is enough to start a transport revolution…but that hardly seems real.

Matthew Gross | Director | mgross@nprco.com.au

Cycling in the Pandemic... sustainable lifestyle changes?

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